9 February 2005

Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it

It is being widely reported that the Islamic parties are going to win the January 30 election by a landslide.  Due to Sunni boycotts of the election, it now appears that the Kurds, the third largest ethnic group in the country, will come in second.  This lopsided balance of power coupled with news that Shiite clerics are going to choose the Prime Minister and write Islamic law into the Iraqi consitution has thrown Dubya's last lie - "spreading democracy" - into the trash bin along with phony WMDs and wild innuendo about Saddam's connections to terrorism.

What happens if the people you just "liberated" in a quest to "spread democracy" reject your lifestyle, your religion, your occupation of their country, and the very way of life you hoped to project into their nation?  Dubya is about to find out.

Faced with an ever-deepening stream of American and Iraqi blood, the Administration is now having to admit that there are thousands or even tens of thousands of insurgents bent on revenge, well-armed and organized, and willing to lay down their lives for their cause.  Designated spokesholes like Condi and Rummy are travelling about the world unveiling new threats against Syria and Iran while at the same time exhorting Arabs to somehow become "moderate" (translate that as "a conga-line of suckholes willing to do Dubya's bidding").  Condi even said she was hopeful that Iraq was going to be the new moderate model for a well-behaved Arab state.  To the Bush Administration, anyone in Iraq who is not actively trying to kill Americans and collaborators appears "moderate".

Unfortunately for Dubya and the thousands more who will die in this needless struggle, there is no escape hatch in his plan to force elections this January.  He risked it all and he has blown it on one roll of the dice. At first blush the election seemed to be a brilliant foreign policy victory for Bush, who sorely needs something in that department to restore some credibility to his endless stream of distortion. A free election and bringing the troops home might have helped create the illusion that the whole thing was, after all, about making democracy happen in Iraq.  All's well that ends well. But the extent of this debacle is becoming clear as the story unfolds and the smoke clears.  It is true that the predicted widespread violence that didn't materialize.  It is also true that the turnout was much higher than some expected.  So the election was a success, right?  Time to bring the troops home.

Wrong.  If the election results are allowed to stand, (and that's a BIG if), a government will take power in Iraq that is much friendlier to the Ayatollahs in Iran than to America or any of our allies.  Bush cannot allow this to happen under the present conditions for two reasons:  first, if an Islamist state forms in Iraq, there is another official bitter enemy of Israel and the US.  That would open the door to even more conflict and would put vast oil resources in the hands of fanatics who would use their power to rid the middle east of American influence.  Second, if an Islamist government takes control they will certainly demand that all troops leave Iraq ASAP, which embolden the insurgents and leave a new government in a very unstable situation.

The most likely outcome is that Dubya will be forced to keep troops in Iraq through this year and many more to come.  The election results will be delayed and obstructions will be put up to implementing them.

How ironic is this?  Dubya is accustomed to rubbing elbows with religious fanatics.  Well, Mr. Bush, meet the new boss.